Holden's district is a lot iffier than it looks here. In 2002 his slightly Republican district was gerrymandered around a very Republican district with the intent of pushing him out, but instead the sitting GOP congressman (George Gekas) lost. Holden would have very tight races, but the Republicans in the district (and the state) have been incompetent.
First they nominated Penn State coach Joe Paterno's son for the name recognition. He had to hurriedly move into the congressional district for starters, had nearly no job experience or other credentials, and was a really poor campaigner. In 2006, the GOP candidate announced he was withdrawing from active campaigning due to ill health.
There's a lot of feuding within the Pennsylvania GOP at present; remember, Specter almost lost his primary in 2004. Then the party picked politically inexperienced football player Lynn Swann over a willing and popular former lt. gov. for its governor nominee, making a lot of insiders mad. And this is in a climate where dozens of state legislators (mostly Republican) were thrown out of office in 2005 over greed scandals. There are still active protest groups (mostly GOP) carrying their giant inflatable pink pig around the Capitol complex. County GOP committees in these parts are voting out their chairs and endorsing challengers to their sitting county commissioners. I read that even Jim Matthews (Chris's brother and the losing GOP lt. gov. candidate) narrowly won endorsement for county commissioner.
Which boils down to: It's OK to push Holden to the left now, but eventually the Republicans will get their act together, and his district is maybe 60% R.
It is a very Republican district, but I question your implication that Holden has largely won b/c of GOP incompetence. After they screwed him with the redistricting -- and he still won -- I think the state party basically decided that its resources could be better used elsewhere. Honestly, I question whether ANY republican can beat Holden at this point absent a huge GOP year.
Tim definitely isn't my favorite Democrat, but there's no doubting that he's a heck of a politician. I can't imagine any other Democrat holding that seat, but I think it's safe as long as he wants to stay in Congress.
I was in Gekas's district prior to 2002 but was redistricted elsewhere, so I don't have any direct knowledge of Holden from a constituent or campaign viewpoint--but I have seen him make the political rounds in Dauphin County very efficiently.
I'll cede your superior knowledge that he'd be really hard to beat, but don't give the state GOP credit for deciding to use its assets elsewhere. It doesn't seem to have competently addressed any political situation for some years now.
Then again, I don't see any Republican candidates on the horizon who could challenge Holden. Piccola seems to desperately want to move up, but the state party wouldn't back him for gov or judge. I think he's like Casey in wanting to stay in the state, but maybe a GOP Schumer would make him an offer he can't refuse. (Or maybe the state party estimates him correctly, and he just gets good press from the Patriot-News; anyway, he's the only Republican in the district I've heard much of anything good about.)
So what is the R/D percentage in the district?
(Oh, and my family and friends--pre-Dean, I did nothing political beyond showing up on election day--considered Gekas a joke, somebody who played the piano in senior centers and lacked gravitas; did he run unopposed in previous years? I voted in that district in 1996, 1998, and 2000, but I don't remember.)
